Ontario Housing Market Update: Waterloo Region, Halton Region & Peel Region
Ontario Housing Market Update: Waterloo Region, Halton Region & Peel Region
GTA-wide sales jumped 9.4% year-over-year in June, but prices are still falling almost everywhere. Here's what actually happened, area by area.
- Sales are recovering faster than prices. GTA-wide home sales rose 9.4% year-over-year in June, even as the MLS® HPI composite benchmark fell 5.39% to $940,800.
- Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge's expired-to-sold ratio widened from 1.26:1 in May to 1.57:1 in June across roughly 5,400 listings analyzed, meaning close to six in ten listings that hit the market did not sell, even as sales grew in every property type.
- Every area covered here posted a year-over-year price decline, ranging from Burlington's comparatively mild -1.99% to Caledon's -8.27%, the steepest drop in this update.
- Oakville remains the priciest market studied at a $1,163,100 benchmark; Kitchener-Waterloo is the most affordable at roughly $642,000.
- New listings fell in every region, tightening supply even while prices stayed soft, a combination that rarely lasts long.
- Homes are sitting longer. Average days on market ranged from the high-20s in Burlington and Halton Hills to the high-40s in Caledon and Mississauga.
Across Waterloo Region, Halton Region, and Peel Region, June 2026 told a two-speed story. Buyers came back to the table (GTA-wide sales climbed 9.4% year-over-year), but sellers are still adjusting expectations, with benchmark prices down everywhere from roughly 2% to 8%. Peel and Caledon saw the sharpest price corrections; Burlington held up best. In Waterloo Region, official benchmark pricing for Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge keeps softening, and a closer look at local listing data shows why: expired listings are outpacing sales by a wider margin than they did in May.
The Bigger Picture: GTA Sales Up, Prices Still Down
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported 6,770 home sales across the Greater Toronto Area in June 2026, up 9.4% from 6,191 a year earlier. New listings told the opposite story, falling 12.9% year-over-year to 17,282, and active listings dropped 13.5% to 27,329, a combination TRREB says points to conditions "tightening through the spring."
TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld called June "a marked improvement" following a slow first quarter, consistent with the board's 2026 outlook for "a year of two halves": softer early, stronger and more price-supportive in the back half as pent-up demand works through the market.
Waterloo Region: Kitchener, Waterloo & Cambridge
Waterloo Region isn't part of TRREB's coverage area, so official benchmark pricing comes from the Cornerstone Association of REALTORS®, which reports Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge as part of its broader multi-region MLS® System. But the sharper signal this month came from a direct pull of local MLS data across roughly 5,400 Kitchener, Waterloo, and Cambridge (KWC) listings: in May, 1.26 listings expired for every one that sold. In June, that ratio widened to 1.57 expired for every one sold, even though sales grew across every property type. That isn't a slowdown, it's a market getting more selective about what actually sells.
- The expired-to-sold ratio widened from 1.26:1 in May to 1.57:1 in June across roughly 5,400 listings analyzed, meaning close to six in ten listings that hit the market did not sell.
- The $500,000 to $700,000 corridor closed 221 sales in June (110 in the $500-600K band, 111 in $600-700K), nearly identical to May's 220, a stable demand ceiling for two straight months.
- Houses are closing right at list price (100.0% of original list, average $786,999), down slightly from May's 100.9%. Condos improved slightly to 97.0% from 96.7%.
Official board benchmark pricing tells a complementary story. Kitchener-Waterloo's MLS® HPI benchmark was $642,000 in Cornerstone's latest release, down 5.5% year-over-year, and Cambridge sat at $671,000, down 6.6%. Both remain the most affordable markets in this update by a wide margin, roughly $200,000 below Halton Hills, the next-cheapest area covered here.
The expired-to-sold, price-corridor, and close-to-list figures above come from an independent analysis of Cornerstone MLS data across roughly 5,400 Kitchener, Waterloo, and Cambridge listings, not Cornerstone's own published release. Board-wide sales totals and new-listing counts aren't broken out at the Waterloo Region sub-area level in Cornerstone's public statistics.
Halton Region: Burlington, Oakville, Milton & Halton Hills
Halton Region posted 785 sales in June on 1,846 new listings, with 2,827 active listings translating to 4.3 months of inventory, tighter than Peel and looser than the GTA's tightest submarkets. The region's composite benchmark sat at $982,400, down 4.10% year-over-year, the mildest regional decline of the three areas in this update.
| Municipality | Sales | Avg. Price | HPI Benchmark | YoY % Chg. | Mos. Inventory | Avg. Days on Mkt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burlington | 279 | $1,149,952 | $871,400 | -1.99% | 3.6 | 27 / 38 |
| Halton Hills | 62 | $975,048 | $998,100 | -5.08% | 4.0 | 26 / 37 |
| Milton | 147 | $998,770 | $877,300 | -4.84% | 3.9 | 30 / 44 |
| Oakville | 297 | $1,454,094 | $1,163,100 | -6.00% | 5.1 | 29 / 42 |
| Halton Region (total) | 785 | $1,222,898 | $982,400 | -4.10% | 4.3 | 28 / 41 |
Burlington was the standout: the only municipality across all three regions in this update where the average sale price actually rose year-over-year, even as its HPI benchmark ticked down just 1.99%, the smallest decline of any area covered here. Oakville remains the most expensive market in the region by a wide margin, and also carries the most inventory relative to sales at 5.1 months, giving buyers there noticeably more room to negotiate than in Burlington or Halton Hills.
Peel Region: Mississauga, Brampton & Caledon
Peel Region logged 1,167 sales against 3,267 new listings in June, with 5,189 active listings pushing months of inventory to 5.1, the loosest of the three regions covered here. The composite benchmark came in at $884,100, down 6.42% year-over-year, and Caledon's -8.27% was the single steepest decline in this entire update.
| Municipality | Sales | Avg. Price | HPI Benchmark | YoY % Chg. | Mos. Inventory | Avg. Days on Mkt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brampton | 518 | $888,203 | $847,800 | -6.70% | 5.1 | 29 / 47 |
| Caledon | 82 | $1,125,065 | $1,088,100 | -8.27% | 6.7 | 33 / 47 |
| Mississauga | 567 | $1,014,120 | $887,200 | -6.05% | 4.9 | 29 / 47 |
| Peel Region (total) | 1,167 | $966,024 | $884,100 | -6.42% | 5.1 | 29 / 48 |
Mississauga did the heavy lifting, accounting for nearly half of Peel's total sales. Caledon is the outlier to watch: a small sales base (82 transactions) combined with the region's longest sell times and largest inventory cushion (6.7 months) means its benchmark price is more volatile month to month than Brampton's or Mississauga's larger, more liquid markets.
All Three Regions, Side by Side
| Area | Benchmark Price | YoY % Chg. | Sales | Mos. Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All TRREB Areas (GTA) | $940,800 | -5.39% | 6,770 | 4.7 |
| Halton Region | $982,400 | -4.10% | 785 | 4.3 |
| Burlington | $871,400 | -1.99% | 279 | 3.6 |
| Halton Hills | $998,100 | -5.08% | 62 | 4.0 |
| Milton | $877,300 | -4.84% | 147 | 3.9 |
| Oakville | $1,163,100 | -6.00% | 297 | 5.1 |
| Peel Region | $884,100 | -6.42% | 1,167 | 5.1 |
| Brampton | $847,800 | -6.70% | 518 | 5.1 |
| Caledon | $1,088,100 | -8.27% | 82 | 6.7 |
| Mississauga | $887,200 | -6.05% | 567 | 4.9 |
| Waterloo Region, Kitchener-Waterloo* | $642,000 | -5.5% | — | — |
| Waterloo Region, Cambridge* | $671,000 | -6.6% | — | — |
*Sales and inventory figures aren't broken out by sub-area in Cornerstone's public release, only benchmark pricing is available for Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge individually. See the Waterloo Region section above for house/townhouse/condo-level detail from an independent MLS data pull.
What This Means If You're Buying or Selling
For buyers
This is still a negotiating environment almost everywhere in this update. Months of inventory above 4 in every region, and above 5 in Peel, Oakville, and especially Caledon, means list price is a starting point, not a floor, in most of these markets. Burlington is the exception worth watching: its price decline was the smallest of any area here, a sign that competitive pockets are already starting to firm up. In Waterloo Region, the widening expired-to-sold ratio means overpriced listings are getting weeded out faster, so a well-researched offer in the $500,000-$700,000 corridor is still competing against real demand.
For sellers
Pricing to the current benchmark, not last year's, matters more than ever. The gap between average sale price and HPI benchmark in areas like Oakville and Caledon shows how much a handful of high-end transactions can skew a headline number; the benchmark is the more reliable read on what a typical, similar home is actually worth today. Homes are also taking longer to sell in slower submarkets (Caledon and Mississauga both averaged around 47-48 days), so pricing and presentation matter more at listing than they did a year or two ago. In Kitchener, Waterloo, and Cambridge specifically, nearly six in ten listings that hit the market in June did not sell, which is the clearest sign yet that overpricing gets punished quickly in this market.
If sales momentum carries into the second half of the year as TRREB's outlook suggests, current conditions may be the last window where buyers hold this much leverage.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are home prices falling in Peel Region in 2026?
Yes. TRREB's MLS® HPI composite benchmark for Peel Region was $884,100 in June 2026, down 6.42% year-over-year, the steepest of the three regions in this update, driven mainly by Caledon's 8.27% decline. Sales volume rose even as prices continued to soften.
Is Halton Region a buyer's market or a seller's market right now?
Halton is trending toward balanced-to-buyer conditions: 4.3 months of inventory region-wide, with Oakville alone at 5.1 months. Homes sold for an average of 97% of list price, giving buyers modest but real negotiating room, except in tighter pockets like Burlington, where prices have held up best.
What's happening in the Waterloo Region housing market?
Kitchener-Waterloo's benchmark price was $642,000 in Cornerstone's latest report, down 5.5% year-over-year; Cambridge sat at $671,000, down 6.6%. The sharper signal is local listing data: across roughly 5,400 Kitchener, Waterloo, and Cambridge listings, the expired-to-sold ratio widened from 1.26:1 in May to 1.57:1 in June, meaning close to six in ten listings didn't sell, even as sales grew across every property type. Houses closed right at 100.0% of list price, while the $500,000-$700,000 price band held steady at 221 sales for a second straight month.
Will GTA home prices recover in the second half of 2026?
TRREB's own outlook calls for "a year of two halves": a slower first half followed by accelerating transactions and more buyer competition in the back half of 2026 that could eventually support price growth. June's 9.4% year-over-year sales increase is the clearest sign yet that demand is returning, though prices haven't followed suit yet.
Thinking about buying or selling in one of these markets?
Every one of these areas is moving differently right now: what's true for Caledon isn't true for Burlington, and a Kitchener-Waterloo strategy won't work in Oakville. I blend financial insight with local market expertise to help buyers, sellers, and investors move with clarity and confidence, wherever you're located across the region. Reach out and let's talk through your specific street, not just the headline numbers.
Sources: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, Market Watch, June 2026 (published July 3, 2026), including the Halton Region, Peel Region, and Home Price Index tables. Cornerstone Association of REALTORS®, Real Estate Market Update, June 2026 (published July 6, 2026), for official Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge benchmark pricing. Expired-to-sold ratio, price-corridor, and close-to-list figures for Kitchener, Waterloo, and Cambridge are from an independent analysis of Cornerstone MLS data across roughly 5,400 listings. All figures reflect firm transactions and benchmark prices as reported by each board; average and benchmark prices are not directly comparable across boards due to differing methodologies.
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